Donald Trump Republican Delegate Count April 25 2016

As we enter the home straight in the Republican Primary campaign, the delegate count becomes ever more important as we look to see if Donald Trump can obtain the 1,237 that he needs or whether we are headed for a Contested Convention.

The system of delegate allocation differs from state to state which makes it very hard to make projections but one thing we do know, Cruz and Kasich have no chance of making it past the finish line before the Convention. This of course leaves two possibilities, a Trump victory or a Contested Convention.

The latest delegate count as of today April 24 according to AP is as follows

Donald Trump    845
Ted Cruz           559
John Kasich      148

This means that Trump requires 392 of the remaining delegates in order to secure the nomination. Many of the establishment figures within the Republican Party have publicly stated that even if Trump is just short, the rules must be followed and a Contested Convention awaits us.

Republican Polls GOP April 1 2016 Trump, Cruz, Kasich

As we approach the date for the Republican Wisconsin Primary, the controversy that has swirled around the campaign reaches fever pitch.

There is no doubt that the agenda is being set by Trump, who thrives upon creating controversy and being attacked by the media, both left and right. This appeals to his core supporters who feel they are not represented by Washington and the establishment.

Ted Cruz has positioned himself as the main contender to the business mogul, becoming a more palatable candidate for the "anybody but Trump" lobby.

Kasich continues to trundle on, mopping up the more moderate republican voters since the departure of Marco Rubio from the race.

Wisconsin Primary  (42 delegates)

Wisconsin is a winner-take-all state and takes place on April 5

Marquette Poll 

March 24-28, Sample Size 471, Margin of Error 5.8%

Ted Cruz            40%
Donald Trump     30%
John Kasich       21%

Optimus Poll

March 22-24, Sample Size 6182, Margin of Error 1.1%

Donald Trump    31%
John Kasich      29%
Ted Cruz           27%

Emerson Poll 

March 20-22, Sample Size 439, Margin of Error 4.6%

Ted Cruz          36%
Donald Trump   35%
John Kasich     19%

Democratic Polls April 1 2016 Clinton Sanders

As the democratic primaries enter the home straight, the battle intensifies. Hillary Clinton is current leading  having secured more delegates than her opponent Bernie Sanders.

Sanders however is not giving up, suggesting that his strongest states are still to come and a flow of victories for his side could alter the allegiances of the superdelegates that are currently supporting Clinton in overwhelming numbers.

During April a number of vital states go to the polls:

April 5

Wisconsin

April 9

Wyoming

April 19

New York

April 26

Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island


Clinton Currently has won 1,243 delegates compared with 980 for Sanders, however Clinton has the loyalty of 469 superdelegates while only 31 support Sanders, meaning the estimated count is 1,712-1,011.

Wisconsin Republican Poll GOP April 1 2016 Trump, Cruz, Kasich

The Republican race continues to be a highly charged and controversial affair. Donald Trump in particular has made headlines, first his campaign manager Corey Lewandoski was charged with one count of simple battery in connection to an incident with Breitbart reporter Michelle Fields.

Trump, not content with only one controversy per week, then ploughed headlong into the ever delicate topic of abortion, suggesting that there should be "some form of punishment" for women who undergo the procedure, although he later clarified that "The doctor or any other person performing this illegal act upon a woman would be held legally responsible, not the woman".

Ted Cruz, seemingly jealous of the massive media coverage that politically incorrect Trump is enjoying, decided to fight fire with fire and on the Jimmy Kimmel Live show jested "If I were in my car and getting ready to reverse and saw Donald in the backup camera, I’m not confident which pedal I’d push". Although it was clearly said in tone of joking, it will do nothing to calm the increasingly toxic republican race, in which Kasich takes a calm approach while Cruz and Trump trade blows and accusations, in which even their wives have been fair game.

According to polls in the state of Wisconsin there is still everything to play for.

The RealClearPolitics average of polls indicates the following percentages

Ted Cruz          34.8%
Donald Trump   31.8%
John Kasich     22.5%

Although an optimus poll with a very high sample size (6182)  and 1.1% margin of error provided the following results

Donald Trump  31%
John Kasich    29%
Ted Cruz         27%
Undecided       13%