Who is going to Win the Presidential Election in the United States 2016

With so little time left until american voters go to the polls to choose a new president, many people are wondering who has a better chance of winning on November 8? Clinton or Trump?

According to the latest national surveys (As of October 25) Hillary Clinton still has a considerable lead over Trump of 5.6%

RealClearPolitics Average (Based on polls carried out between October 15-25 nationally)

Hillary Clinton   48.6%
Donald Trump   43.2%

At the end of the day these are only predictions and the polls have been wrong previously, so it remains to be seen if these numbers will be reflected in the final vote count. Certainlly in both camps they are taking nothing for granted and are fighting for every last vote.

Who is Winning in Colorado? Election 2016 Trump Clinton

Colorado is one of the key swing states within the presidential election 2016.

In the election in 2012 President Obama who the state.

Results Colorado Presidential Election 2012

Barack Obama  51.2% (1,238,490 votes)
Mitt Romney     46.5% (1,125,391 votes)

According to the latest polls, Hillary clinton has the advantage in the state

Hillary Clinton  44.6%
Donald Trump  38.4%

Who is Winning Trump or Clinton October 2016

According to the majority of recent polling data Hillary Clinton holds the lead over Donald Trump nationally. The latest RealClearPolitics Average demonstrates this

RealClearPolitics Average (Based on polls conducted between )

Hillary Clinton    48.1%
Donald Trump    44.3%

Although it is also important to take into consideration swing state polls, which can be of vital importance in determining the outcome of the election, it would be difficult for Trump to win being 4 points adrift of Clinton nationally.

"The Donald" must take certain states such as Florida, North Carolina and Ohio if he is to have a chance of victory, the race in those states is still too close to call and both campaigns have been focusing their energies on these places.

Poll Trump vs Clinton 5 October 2016

New polling is showing that the recent presidential debate may have benefitted Hillary Clinton, with CBS News, CNN and Economist/YouGov polls all showing her with a healthy lead over Donald Trump.

CBS News (9/28-10/2) 1217 LV, Margin of Error 4.0%

Hillary Clinton  49%
Donald Trump  43%

CNN/ORC (9/28-10/2) 1213 LV, Margin of Error 3.0%

Hillary Clinton  51%
Donald Trump  45%

Economist/YouGov (10/1-10/3) 911 RV, Margin of Error 3.9%

Hillary Clinton   48%
Donald Trump   43%

The site RealClearPolitics takes these latest polls into account in addition to 7 previous ones, giving an average as follows.

RealClearPolitics Average (9/22-10/3)

Hillary Clinton   48.1%
Donald Trump   44.3%

Poll in Florida Trump vs Clinton October 2016

As far as swing states go, Florida is the most important, it is definitely a must win state for the Republican candidate for president, Donald Trump.

The race has fluctuated wildly according to which poll you choose to believe, some have shown Trump with a lead of up to 4 points and others showing Clinton well ahead, if we take into consideration the average polling numbers, based on the last 6 polls undertaken in the sunshine state between September 7-29 then it is Clinton with the lead, albeit a slender one of a mere 1.2%.

RealClearPolitics Average Florida (Polls conducted between September 7-29)

Hillary Clinton   45.0%
Donald Trump   43.8%

In 2012 it was President Barack Obama who won the state which switches every now and again between Republican and Democrat.

Poll Trump vs Clinton September 29 2016

So we have had the first debate, Trump vs Clinton, a blockbuster showdown that attracted 100 million viewers, making it the most viewed in history.

Most people believe that Hillary Clinton emerged triumphant as Trump seemed to melt down about 30 minutes into the debate, having been the stronger during the first section.

According to the latest poll data the race remains a close run affair, although it is not clear how much Monday`s debate will affect the numbers.

RealClearPolitics Average

Hillary Clinton    46.7%
Donald Trump    44.4%

Where Can I watch the Presidential Debate Trump vs Clinton ?

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are already preparing their strategies for the upcoming presidential debates. They are being seen as very important in this year`s race and due to Trump`s charisma and controversial nature are sure to attract huge numbers of viewers.

Trump had at first expressed doubt about whether or not he would participate in all 3 debates, citing the fact that some dates coincide with NFL games and then casting further doubt after criticizing some of the choices for moderators.

However he now affirmed his commitment to attend all three debates, saying to the press that only "Hurricanes and natural disasters" could change his mind.

The first debate will take place September 26 at Hofstra University in New York and will be moderated by Lester Holt from NBC.

Clinton has long since been leading in the polls, however recently it appears that Trump may be closing the gap somewhat, making the debates of utmost importance in the race to the White House.

Percentage of Black Vote for Donald Trump

It is no secret that following the RNC Republican Candidate Donald Trump has been suffering in the polls, with the majority showing him various points adrift of Democrat Hillary Clinton.

The Republican candidate thus appears to be changing tactics and going after minority votes, especially in the African American demographic. It is without doubt a very difficult task according to Gallop Mitt Romney only gained 5% of the black vote compared to Barack Obama in 2012, in 2008 John Mccain only polled at 1% compared to 99% for Obama, whereas in 2004 George Bush did slightly better, gaining 7% in this Demographic.

According to some polls and news outlets Trump is polling between just 1-2% of the black voter, whereas others put him at as much as 8%. It is unclear if his recent outreach to the black community has shifted these numbers in any big way.

Polls Trump vs Clinton August 30 2016

Within the last week Republican nominee for President, Donald Trump has embarked on a strategy of attracting more ethnic minority support, mainly black voters, but is it a case of too little, too late?

Many commentators have long been waiting for Trump to pivot more to the center, in order to attract a greater share of independents and possibly disaffected Sander`s supporters. However no such pivot has really occurred until now.

Black people tend to vote overwhelmingly democrat and despite more attempts by the Republican party to reach out to this demographic over the last few years, hitherto nothing has been successful.

Trump`s main message to African Americans appears to be that he will lower crime within their communities and bring back jobs from other countries.

The current running average on RealClearPolitics shows that Hillary Clinton continues to hold a healthy lead over Donald Trump based on the last 6 reliable polls.

Hillary Clinton  48.3%
Donald Trump  42.3%

Polls Clinton vs Trump California August 2016

As would be expected, Hillary Clinton has a massive advantage over Trump in the polling for the presidential election in the state of California.

According to the latest RealClearPolitics average (which takes into account the last 5 reliable polls in the state conducted between May 19- July 19) Clinton has a lead of 22.2%.

During the primary campaign Trump was keen to stress that he could bring certain democrat states into play, which no other candidate could, such as New York. Despite that, California would probably be too ambitious even for the real estate mogul to contemplate.

The latest nationwide polls show Trump trailing Clinton by about 6 points, although many Trump supporters have questioned the veracity of the polling methods.

Trump vs Clinton Polls August 25 2016

After a tough few weeks for the Donald Trump campaign which has shown him down by 6 points on his rival Hillary Clinton, the republican candidate appears to have switched tactics, trying to attract more black voters to support him.

The latest RealClearPolitics average shows the following data

RealClearPolitics Average (August 1-22)

Hillary Clinton  47.0%
Donald Trump  41.5%


Many republicans have been highlighting the fact that in many democrat run cities with high african american communities murder rates and gun crime have been on the rise since last year, especially in Chicago and Baltimore and Trump is trying to appeal to disgruntled black voters in these areas, portraying himself as the "law and order" candidate.

Although black voters tend to vote democrat in overwhelming numbers, Trump appears to be betting that he can convince enough of them to vote Republican in order to boost his vote share in key swing states to triumph in this year`s election.

Polls Trump vs Clinton August 20 2016

New polls out this week seem to indicate that Hillary Clinton is maintaining her lead over Donald Trump in the race for the White House. The last 6 polls all show Clinton leading by between 1-8 points resulting in a RealClearPolitics average of a 6 point lead for the former First Lady and Secretary of State.

RealClearPolitics Average (August 1-16)

Hillary Clinton  47.2%
Donald Trump  41.2%

Many Trump supporters have questioned the veracity of recent polls, claiming them to be biased in favor of the Democrats. Certainly in the Republican primaries there were many polling companies that vastly under represented Trump`s support so it would not be surprising if it is again the case.

The first Presidential debate will take place on September 26 and it likely to draw record numbers of viewers, eager to see the showdown between this year`s candidates.

Trump vs Clinton Polls August 16 2016

There are now less than 3 months left until the presidential election will decide who is elected to the most powerful office on the planet and polls continue to show democratic candidate Hillary Clinton with a substantial lead over Donald Trump.

Following a significant bounce after the RNC, Trump`s numbers have gone lower and lower. An LA Times/USC poll has Trump only 1 point adrift, however all other recent polls have Clinton ahead by more than that. The biggest advantage for Clinton was in a NBC/SM poll which showed her eclipsing the Republican candidate by 10 points. The running RealClearPolitics percentage (Taken as an average of the last 6 reliable polls has Clinton leading by 6.6 points.

RCP Average (August 1-11)

Hillary Clinton  47.5%
Donald Trump  41.2%

Trump is really struggling among female voters, where he trails by 23 points, according to some reports. If this holds true up until election day then it will be hard to see how Trump can win the election. It will be interesting to see how many people are willing to chance their choice of candidate based on the presidential debates.

Trump vs Clinton Polls 11 August 2016

According to the latest polls, Hillary Clinton has a stranglehold over the presidential election, at least for now.

The last 11 polls all show Clinton leading Donald Trump by varying degrees, between 1 to 15 points.

RealClearPolitics Average, July 29- 6 August

Hillary Clinton   47.5%
Donald Trump   40.5%

Many commentators say this has been one of the worst weeks for the Trump campaign, following the RNC Trump had a bounce which showed him leading in many polls, however since then his numbers appear to be in freefall.

Clinton has an especially big lead among women, some 23 points according to some polls.

Many Trump supporters have acused the polls of being biased against their candidate due to a skewed methodology, such as having a much higher quantity of democrats over republicans.

Trump vs Clinton Polls Michigan August 2016

Polls undertaken in the state of Michigan over the course of the last month show Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton with a healthy lead over Donald Trump.

According to the RealClearPolitics average, which takes into account the last 6 polls reliable polls in the state which were conducted between 5 July - 4 August the former First Lady and Secretary of State leads Trump by 6.6%.

RCP Average (5 July - 4 August)

Hillary Clinton  41.8%
Donald Trump  35.2%

It has been a difficult week for Donald Trump, who, having taken a brief lead following the RNC, has now been on a downward trend in the polls for the past 2 weeks.

Trump vs Clinton Polls August 5 2016

A few new polls out today gauging the support for the two candidates for the presidency of the United States show that Hillary Clinton continuing to pull away from Donald Trump.

Trump who had previously drawn level and taken the lead in a few polls following the Republican National Convention has now again fallen behind. Three separate polls show Clinton in the lead by varying degrees.

Fox News (July 31-August 2), Sample Size 1022, Margin of Error 3.0

Hillary Clinton  49%
Donald Trump  39%

Economist/YouGov (July 30-August 1), Sample Size 933, Margin of Error 4.1%

HIllary Clinton  46%
Donald Trump  43%

La Times/USC (July 28-August 3), Sample Size 2175

Hillary Clinton  45%
Donald Trump  44%

The average of the last 8 reliable polls conducted according to RealClearPolitics shows the following detail.

Hillary Clinton  47.4%
Donald Trump  41.5%

Trump vs Clinton Virginia Polls August 2016

Two polls conducted last month in the state of Virginia show Clinton leading in the state and another shows the two in a tie.

A NBC/WSJ/Marist poll conducted between July 5-11 of 876 voters with a Margin of Error of 3.3% showed that Clinton leading 44-35, a lead of 9 points.

A FOX News poll which was undertaken between July 9-12 of 601 voters and with a margin of error of 4% showed Clinton leading 44-37, a lead of 7 points.

Hampton University poll which was conducted between 6-10 July of 805 voters and having a margin of error of 4.6% showed the two candidates tied at 39-39.

If we take an average of these 3 polls then Clinton is leading 5.3%

RCP Average (5-12 July)

Hillary Clinton  42.3%
Donald Trump  37.0%

Colorado Polls Trump vs Clinton August 2016

Colorado is considered one of the key swing states in this year`s election and according to the latest polls the democrats have a big advantage.

The RCP average of polls conducted between July 5- July 12 show that Hillary Clinton has the upper hand in the state.

RCP Average (July 5-July 12)

Hillary Clinton  44.6%
Donald Trump  36.6%

A fox News poll of 600 voters with a margin of error of 4 points conducted between July 9-July 12 showed the following results

Hillary Clinton  44%
Donald Trump  34%

Trump vs Clinton Polls August 2 2016

As we can see the latest average of polls conducted by RealClearPolitics shows Hillary Clinton has retaken the lead over Republican candidate Donald Trump.

RCP Average (July 22-31)

Hillary Clinton  44.9%
Donald Trump  42.7%

So Clinton now has a lead of 2.2% largely due to two new polls conducted by CBS News and PPP which produced the following results.

CBS News Poll July 29-31, Margin of Error 3.0%, 1131 RV

Hillary Clinton  47%
Donald Trump  41%

PPP Poll, July 29-30, Margin of Error 2.7%, 1276 LV

Hillary Clinton  50%
Donald Trump  45%

Despite the fact that Trump has fallen behind once again he is still much closer to the democrat contender than he had been for much of July when Clinton`s lead fluctuated between 3-5% before Trump was the apparent beneficiary of a "convention bounce" at the end of the month when he moved into a 1% lead.

Most commentators and members of the public have been forced to admit, love him or loathe him, Donald Trump`s political resilience has been breathtaking. After overcoming a plethora of scandals during the Republican Primaries and facing a "Never Trump" movement from within the party, he has continued to dumbfound political gravity by running Clinton close in many polls. Polling from within the last month even showed him with slight leads in Pennsylvania and Florida and level in Ohio.

Although polling is our only real indicator of who is winning in the race for the White House, they have proven to be extremely volatile thus far. For example Clinton was shown to be leading in by 8 points in Florida and within just a few weeks Trump was shown to be in the lead by 1 point in the vital state.

Polls Trump vs Clinton Florida August 2016

No reliable polling has been conducted in the vital state of Florida since June 11. However according to the RealClearPolitics average which comprises of 4 polls conducted between June 27 and July 11, Donald Trump had a slight advantage.

RCP Average (June 27-July 11)

Donald Trump   43.8%
Hillary Clinton   43.5%

Many commentators often say that it is Florida that decides the election given that fact that it is usually quite evenly divided between Republican and Democrat voters and has a large population. According to national polls Clinton seems to be favorite to win the election by a slight margin, however should Trump win Florida then all bets are off.