Chicago Murder Rate September 2016

Shootings and homicides in the city of Chicago have massively escalated during 2016 compared to the previous year. Many are attributing this to the so called "Ferguson effect" which suggests that due to increased scrutiny of the police following the 2014 shooting of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri, police have been more cautious to use force to deter crime, thus leading to an increase in the murder rate in certain areas.

Chicago has been in the news for a number of years due to its high murder and gun crime rates, however this had been slowly decreasing until the last few years. According to the Chicago Tribune, which catalogues shootings and murders in the city, last year there were a total of 490 homicides, however this year there have already been a total of 464, with 4 months still left, a substantial increase.

A total of 2,988 people were shot in the city last year compared to 2,808 so far this year. So far in August there have been 65 homicides (As of August 28). UPDATE : A total of 92 homicides were recorded in August, making it the most deadly month in 20 years in the city.

Polls Trump vs Clinton August 30 2016

Within the last week Republican nominee for President, Donald Trump has embarked on a strategy of attracting more ethnic minority support, mainly black voters, but is it a case of too little, too late?

Many commentators have long been waiting for Trump to pivot more to the center, in order to attract a greater share of independents and possibly disaffected Sander`s supporters. However no such pivot has really occurred until now.

Black people tend to vote overwhelmingly democrat and despite more attempts by the Republican party to reach out to this demographic over the last few years, hitherto nothing has been successful.

Trump`s main message to African Americans appears to be that he will lower crime within their communities and bring back jobs from other countries.

The current running average on RealClearPolitics shows that Hillary Clinton continues to hold a healthy lead over Donald Trump based on the last 6 reliable polls.

Hillary Clinton  48.3%
Donald Trump  42.3%

Polls Clinton vs Trump California August 2016

As would be expected, Hillary Clinton has a massive advantage over Trump in the polling for the presidential election in the state of California.

According to the latest RealClearPolitics average (which takes into account the last 5 reliable polls in the state conducted between May 19- July 19) Clinton has a lead of 22.2%.

During the primary campaign Trump was keen to stress that he could bring certain democrat states into play, which no other candidate could, such as New York. Despite that, California would probably be too ambitious even for the real estate mogul to contemplate.

The latest nationwide polls show Trump trailing Clinton by about 6 points, although many Trump supporters have questioned the veracity of the polling methods.

Trump vs Clinton Polls August 25 2016

After a tough few weeks for the Donald Trump campaign which has shown him down by 6 points on his rival Hillary Clinton, the republican candidate appears to have switched tactics, trying to attract more black voters to support him.

The latest RealClearPolitics average shows the following data

RealClearPolitics Average (August 1-22)

Hillary Clinton  47.0%
Donald Trump  41.5%


Many republicans have been highlighting the fact that in many democrat run cities with high african american communities murder rates and gun crime have been on the rise since last year, especially in Chicago and Baltimore and Trump is trying to appeal to disgruntled black voters in these areas, portraying himself as the "law and order" candidate.

Although black voters tend to vote democrat in overwhelming numbers, Trump appears to be betting that he can convince enough of them to vote Republican in order to boost his vote share in key swing states to triumph in this year`s election.

Trump vs Clinton Polls August 16 2016

There are now less than 3 months left until the presidential election will decide who is elected to the most powerful office on the planet and polls continue to show democratic candidate Hillary Clinton with a substantial lead over Donald Trump.

Following a significant bounce after the RNC, Trump`s numbers have gone lower and lower. An LA Times/USC poll has Trump only 1 point adrift, however all other recent polls have Clinton ahead by more than that. The biggest advantage for Clinton was in a NBC/SM poll which showed her eclipsing the Republican candidate by 10 points. The running RealClearPolitics percentage (Taken as an average of the last 6 reliable polls has Clinton leading by 6.6 points.

RCP Average (August 1-11)

Hillary Clinton  47.5%
Donald Trump  41.2%

Trump is really struggling among female voters, where he trails by 23 points, according to some reports. If this holds true up until election day then it will be hard to see how Trump can win the election. It will be interesting to see how many people are willing to chance their choice of candidate based on the presidential debates.

Republican vs Democrat Polls August 2016

A new poll conducted by FOX News shows that following the DNC would appear to indicate that Hillary Clinton has experienced a large bounce showing her up 10 points.

Trump`s campaign chairman Paul Manafort being interviewing on "CBS This Morning" downplayed the significance of the poll, saying that the drop "was expected". "It depends on which poll you look at. We feel like in another week or so, the polls are going to even out,", "We always thought we had a bounce and knew the Democrats would have a bounce. And now you see a situation in what looks like an uneven field but in two weeks we think that’s gonna even out if we are out there on our message, which we will be" he continued.

It should be noted that in the brief interlude between the RNC and DNC polls indicated that Trump had experienced a "Convention bounce", leading Clinton in most polls.

Colorado Polls Trump vs Clinton August 2016

Colorado is considered one of the key swing states in this year`s election and according to the latest polls the democrats have a big advantage.

The RCP average of polls conducted between July 5- July 12 show that Hillary Clinton has the upper hand in the state.

RCP Average (July 5-July 12)

Hillary Clinton  44.6%
Donald Trump  36.6%

A fox News poll of 600 voters with a margin of error of 4 points conducted between July 9-July 12 showed the following results

Hillary Clinton  44%
Donald Trump  34%

Trump vs Clinton Polls August 2 2016

As we can see the latest average of polls conducted by RealClearPolitics shows Hillary Clinton has retaken the lead over Republican candidate Donald Trump.

RCP Average (July 22-31)

Hillary Clinton  44.9%
Donald Trump  42.7%

So Clinton now has a lead of 2.2% largely due to two new polls conducted by CBS News and PPP which produced the following results.

CBS News Poll July 29-31, Margin of Error 3.0%, 1131 RV

Hillary Clinton  47%
Donald Trump  41%

PPP Poll, July 29-30, Margin of Error 2.7%, 1276 LV

Hillary Clinton  50%
Donald Trump  45%

Despite the fact that Trump has fallen behind once again he is still much closer to the democrat contender than he had been for much of July when Clinton`s lead fluctuated between 3-5% before Trump was the apparent beneficiary of a "convention bounce" at the end of the month when he moved into a 1% lead.

Most commentators and members of the public have been forced to admit, love him or loathe him, Donald Trump`s political resilience has been breathtaking. After overcoming a plethora of scandals during the Republican Primaries and facing a "Never Trump" movement from within the party, he has continued to dumbfound political gravity by running Clinton close in many polls. Polling from within the last month even showed him with slight leads in Pennsylvania and Florida and level in Ohio.

Although polling is our only real indicator of who is winning in the race for the White House, they have proven to be extremely volatile thus far. For example Clinton was shown to be leading in by 8 points in Florida and within just a few weeks Trump was shown to be in the lead by 1 point in the vital state.

Polls Trump vs Clinton Florida August 2016

No reliable polling has been conducted in the vital state of Florida since June 11. However according to the RealClearPolitics average which comprises of 4 polls conducted between June 27 and July 11, Donald Trump had a slight advantage.

RCP Average (June 27-July 11)

Donald Trump   43.8%
Hillary Clinton   43.5%

Many commentators often say that it is Florida that decides the election given that fact that it is usually quite evenly divided between Republican and Democrat voters and has a large population. According to national polls Clinton seems to be favorite to win the election by a slight margin, however should Trump win Florida then all bets are off.

United States Attacks ISIS in Libya : August 1 2016

The US military appears to be expanding its efforts against Islamic State in the North African country of Libya, where the group is said to have a significant presence.

Today air strikes were carried out around the city of Sirte, which has long been a stronghold of the group.

According to previous reports by experts on the terror group, one of their main aims is to gain territory in many countries in order to wage a final battle against the west. This may explain why the US and its allies are reluctant to engage in full scale combat against the group and instead opt for a longer term strategy of debilitating their capacities with targeted strikes in order that local forces dislodge them.