Tuesday, February 2, 2016

Predictions New Hampshire Primary 2016, Trump, Cruz, Rubio

So the results are in from Iowa, Ted Cruz has managed to win the state despite polls showing him a few percentage points adrift of Trump. Marco Rubio also had a shock result, he was expected to come third, however his share of the vote was a full 10 points above his polling. Many commentators consider Rubio to be the preferred candidate of the GOP establishment.

Iowa is considered an important state to win as it gives a candidate momentum going into New Hampshire and energize his or her vote. Despite this, on the republican side Iowa doesn't have a very good track record of predicting the winner over the last few years.

The fact that Trump didn't triumph in Iowa makes New Hampshire vital for his campaign, failure to win there could spell the end of any realistic opportunity that the businessman has to win the nomination. He currently has a lead of up to 20 points in that state (According to polls conducted within the last week). It will be interesting to see what impact, if any, yesterdays result has on the standings there.

Prediction : Trump wins New Hampshire

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