Conventionfacts.org New Website GOP Contested Convention

The GOP appears to be reading itself for a contested convention, a new site has been lauched in order to inform republicans of the rules that must be adhered to in case of a contested or brokered convention.

There is some doubt as to whether any one candidate will obtain the 1,237 delegates required in order to secure the nomination of the party and therefore it will have to be decided at the convention.

Currently Donald Trump is leading in the delegate count as we enter the last few months of voting.

Republican Polls GOP April 1 2016 Trump, Cruz, Kasich

As we approach the date for the Republican Wisconsin Primary, the controversy that has swirled around the campaign reaches fever pitch.

There is no doubt that the agenda is being set by Trump, who thrives upon creating controversy and being attacked by the media, both left and right. This appeals to his core supporters who feel they are not represented by Washington and the establishment.

Ted Cruz has positioned himself as the main contender to the business mogul, becoming a more palatable candidate for the "anybody but Trump" lobby.

Kasich continues to trundle on, mopping up the more moderate republican voters since the departure of Marco Rubio from the race.

Wisconsin Primary  (42 delegates)

Wisconsin is a winner-take-all state and takes place on April 5

Marquette Poll 

March 24-28, Sample Size 471, Margin of Error 5.8%

Ted Cruz            40%
Donald Trump     30%
John Kasich       21%

Optimus Poll

March 22-24, Sample Size 6182, Margin of Error 1.1%

Donald Trump    31%
John Kasich      29%
Ted Cruz           27%

Emerson Poll 

March 20-22, Sample Size 439, Margin of Error 4.6%

Ted Cruz          36%
Donald Trump   35%
John Kasich     19%

Bernie Sanders Polls April 1 2016 Wisconsin

Love him or loathe him, most people agree that Bernie Sanders has added a new and interesting dimension to this years Democratic Primary race.

He is currently a long way behind Hillary Clinton in the delegate count, especially when superdelegates are factored in. However in a recent interview he observed "If you look at the map of primaries and caucuses, it turns out that the early states really do favor Secretary Clinton because a lot of those delegates came from the deep south". In reference to the superdelegates he also added "I think you are going to see some of them rethinking their commitment to Secretary Clinton if we can show that we are winning states around this country".

The next three states to go to the polls on the Democratic side are Wisconsin (April 5), Wyoming (April 9) and New York (April 19).

Wisconsin RealClearPolitics Average (March 20-28)

Hillary Clinton     47.5%
Bernie Sanders   46.5%


Wyoming 

No reliable data

New York RealClearPolitics Average (March 28-29) 

Hillary Clinton    60%
Bernie Sanders  33%


This average is based on wildly differing polls, for example an Emerson poll conducted between March 14-16 with a sample size of 298 and margin of error of 5.6% showed Clinton leading 71-23, a colossal 48 point lead. However, a poll conducted by Quinnipiac just one week later, March 22-29, Sample Size 693, Margin of Error 3.7%, showed Clinton leading 54-42.

Hillary Clinton Polls Democratic April 1 2016

According to what we have seen thus far in the Democratic Primaries, Hillary Clinton is the favorite to win and face the republican nominee in November`s Presidential Election.

There appears to be a definite divide, with Clinton dominating the southern states and Bernie Sanders in the north. Winning important states such as Texas and Florida has allowed Clinton to open up a lead in the delegate count of 1,243-980. When superdelegates are factored in the lead grows to an even more impressive 1,712-1,011.

Sanders has argued that he can still win as the coming states will favor him instead of Clinton and some of the superdelegates may then switch their allegiance. However, with New York coming up and polls showing Clinton leading, this looks to be a long shot.

Democratic Polls April 1 2016 Clinton Sanders

As the democratic primaries enter the home straight, the battle intensifies. Hillary Clinton is current leading  having secured more delegates than her opponent Bernie Sanders.

Sanders however is not giving up, suggesting that his strongest states are still to come and a flow of victories for his side could alter the allegiances of the superdelegates that are currently supporting Clinton in overwhelming numbers.

During April a number of vital states go to the polls:

April 5

Wisconsin

April 9

Wyoming

April 19

New York

April 26

Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island


Clinton Currently has won 1,243 delegates compared with 980 for Sanders, however Clinton has the loyalty of 469 superdelegates while only 31 support Sanders, meaning the estimated count is 1,712-1,011.

Republican Polls Donald Trump April 1 2016 Wisconsin

Businessman Donald Trump continues to wreak havoc within the Republican Party, nonchalantly whipping up scandal and controversy.

Following his campaign manager being charged for simple battery of Breitbart reporter Michelle Fields you would have been forgiven for thinking the "The Donald" would lay low for a while, however he instead opted to launch himself into the abortion issue, stating that there should be "some form of punishment" for women who have an abortion. He lately clarified his position "The doctor or any other person performing this illegal act upon a woman would be held legally responsible, not the woman".

Trump`s rejection of political correctness has gained him many voters, who are fed up with the establishment and media. He currently has a big lead in the delegate count over nearest rival over Ted Cruz. His controversial approach has also won him many detractors who are leading figures within the republican party such as Mitt Romney.

There is some doubt as to whether or not Trump can reach the 1,237 delegates he requires in order to secure the republican nomination, should he not pass this magic number then a contested convention awaits.

Wisconsin is the next state to go to the polls and it looks like a tight race.


Marquette Poll 

March 24-28, Sample Size 471, Margin of Error 5.8%

Ted Cruz            40%
Donald Trump     30%
John Kasich       21%

Optimus Poll

March 22-24, Sample Size 6182, Margin of Error 1.1%

Donald Trump    31%
John Kasich      29%
Ted Cruz           27%

Emerson Poll 

March 20-22, Sample Size 439, Margin of Error 4.6%

Ted Cruz          36%
Donald Trump   35%
John Kasich     19%

Wisconsin Republican Poll GOP April 1 2016 Trump, Cruz, Kasich

The Republican race continues to be a highly charged and controversial affair. Donald Trump in particular has made headlines, first his campaign manager Corey Lewandoski was charged with one count of simple battery in connection to an incident with Breitbart reporter Michelle Fields.

Trump, not content with only one controversy per week, then ploughed headlong into the ever delicate topic of abortion, suggesting that there should be "some form of punishment" for women who undergo the procedure, although he later clarified that "The doctor or any other person performing this illegal act upon a woman would be held legally responsible, not the woman".

Ted Cruz, seemingly jealous of the massive media coverage that politically incorrect Trump is enjoying, decided to fight fire with fire and on the Jimmy Kimmel Live show jested "If I were in my car and getting ready to reverse and saw Donald in the backup camera, I’m not confident which pedal I’d push". Although it was clearly said in tone of joking, it will do nothing to calm the increasingly toxic republican race, in which Kasich takes a calm approach while Cruz and Trump trade blows and accusations, in which even their wives have been fair game.

According to polls in the state of Wisconsin there is still everything to play for.

The RealClearPolitics average of polls indicates the following percentages

Ted Cruz          34.8%
Donald Trump   31.8%
John Kasich     22.5%

Although an optimus poll with a very high sample size (6182)  and 1.1% margin of error provided the following results

Donald Trump  31%
John Kasich    29%
Ted Cruz         27%
Undecided       13%